Sex-Specific Risk Stratification in Aortic Regurgitation: Moving Beyond One-Size-Fits-All Thresholds

Sex-Specific Risk Stratification in Aortic Regurgitation: Moving Beyond One-Size-Fits-All Thresholds

Introduction and Context

Aortic Regurgitation (AR) remains a significant challenge in valvular heart disease, characterized by the backflow of blood from the aorta into the left ventricle (LV). This volume overload triggers a compensatory process known as LV remodeling, where the heart chamber dilates and thickens to maintain stroke volume. However, this compensation eventually reaches a tipping point, leading to irreversible myocardial damage, heart failure, and death. For decades, the timing of surgical intervention—specifically Aortic Valve Surgery (AVS)—has been guided by specific thresholds of LV dilatation and ejection fraction.

Currently, both the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) provide guidelines for intervention in asymptomatic patients with severe AR. These guidelines rely heavily on the Left Ventricular End-Systolic Diameter Index (LVESDi). While these recommendations aim to standardize care, they have historically applied uniform thresholds regardless of a patient’s sex. Emerging evidence suggests that this ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach may lead to delayed interventions, particularly in women, who generally have smaller baseline cardiac dimensions. A landmark study recently published in *JAMA Cardiology* (Lopez Santi et al., 2026) highlights the urgent need to refine these thresholds to account for sex-specific physiological differences and the superiority of volumetric measurements.

New Guideline Highlights

The core of the recent expert consensus and supporting data revolves around two major shifts in clinical thinking: the transition from linear to volumetric assessment and the implementation of sex-specific cutoffs.

**Key Takeaways for Clinicians:**
1. **Threshold Lowering:** The study suggests that mortality risk increases at an LVESDi of 20 mm/m² for both sexes, which is lower than the 25 mm/m² currently recommended in most guidelines.
2. **Volumetric Superiority:** Left Ventricular End-Systolic Volume Index (LVESVi) provides a more accurate representation of 3D remodeling than the 1D linear diameter (LVESDi).
3. **Sex-Specific Volumes:** To optimize survival, surgical consideration should be triggered at an LVESVi of 40 mL/m² for women and 45 mL/m² for men.
4. **Survival Disparity:** Under current medical management, women with moderate-severe AR show lower survival rates compared to men (80% vs 89% over six years), likely due to later detection of reaching critical remodeling stages.

Updated Recommendations and Key Changes

The landscape of AR management is shifting from conservative monitoring to earlier, more precise intervention. The following table compares traditional guideline thresholds with the newly proposed evidence-based criteria:

| Metric | Traditional Guidelines (Unisex) | Proposed Criteria (Men) | Proposed Criteria (Women) |
| :— | :— | :— | :— |
| **LVESDi (Linear)** | 25 mm/m² (or >50 mm absolute) | 20 mm/m² | 20 mm/m² |
| **LVESVi (Volume)** | 45 mL/m² (Recently added to ESC) | 45 mL/m² | 40 mL/m² |
| **LVEF (Ejection Fraction)** | <50% or <55% | <55% | <55% |

**Evidence Driving the Updates:**
The drive for these changes comes from a multicenter cohort study involving 808 patients across five international centers. The researchers found that while linear diameter indices (LVESDi) performed similarly across sexes, they were less sensitive than volume indices. Most importantly, the research demonstrated that women reached higher risk levels at lower absolute volumes than men, even when indexed to body surface area. This suggests that the biological response to volume overload differs significantly by sex, requiring tailored monitoring.

Topic-by-Topic Recommendations

**Diagnostic Criteria and Imaging**
Transthoracic Echocardiography (TTE) remains the first-line diagnostic tool. However, the study emphasizes that 2D linear measurements (diameter) may underestimate the degree of remodeling. Clinicians are encouraged to use 3D echocardiography or Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) to calculate LVESVi accurately. If indexed volumes are approaching the new thresholds (40 mL/m² for women), the frequency of follow-up should increase.

**Risk Stratification**
Risk stratification should no longer rely solely on the appearance of symptoms or a drop in Ejection Fraction (EF). Because EF often remains ‘preserved’ (≥50%) until significant damage has occurred, the focus must shift to LVESVi. The study showed that even in patients with preserved EF, exceeding the sex-specific volume thresholds was independently associated with all-cause mortality.

**Treatment Pathways: Timing of Surgery**
The ‘Golden Window’ for AVS is before irreversible myocardial fibrosis occurs. For men, the threshold of 45 mL/m² remains a robust marker for intervention. For women, waiting for the 45 mL/m² threshold may be detrimental; the recommendation is to consider surgical referral at 40 mL/m². Interestingly, the study found that once surgery was performed, the survival difference between men and women disappeared, suggesting that timely surgery effectively ‘levels the playing field.’

**Follow-up and Monitoring**
Patients with moderate-to-severe AR who do not yet meet surgical criteria should be monitored every 6 to 12 months. If LVESVi shows a rapid upward trend—even if still below the threshold—it should prompt a more aggressive evaluation for potential valve replacement or repair.

Expert Commentary and Insights

Leading cardiologists involved in the study highlight that the current reliance on linear measurements is a relic of older technology. “We have moved into an era where 3D imaging is widely available,” notes one expert from the consensus panel. “Using a single diameter to represent a complex, three-dimensional remodeling process is like trying to determine the size of a room by measuring only the width of the floor.”

A significant controversy remains regarding the ‘indexing’ of these values. While indexing to Body Surface Area (BSA) helps, some experts argue that it still does not fully account for the smaller cardiac geometry inherent in many female patients. This explains why the study found that women require a lower indexed volume threshold (40 mL/m²) than men (45 mL/m²) to predict similar mortality risks.

There is also a consensus that the Ejection Fraction threshold of 50% is too low. Many surgeons now advocate for intervention when EF drops below 55%, as survival outcomes are significantly better when the heart’s pumping function is still robust.

Practical Implications: A Patient Vignette

Consider the case of “Sarah,” a 58-year-old active woman with a BSA of 1.6 m². She is diagnosed with asymptomatic severe AR. Her TTE shows an EF of 56% and an LVESDi of 22 mm/m². Under traditional guidelines (threshold 25 mm/m²), Sarah would be told to ‘wait and see.’

However, using the new sex-specific volumetric criteria, her LVESVi is calculated at 42 mL/m². This exceeds the proposed 40 mL/m² threshold for women. Recognizing that her mortality risk is now significantly higher despite her lack of symptoms, her cardiologist refers her for AVS. Sarah undergoes a successful valve replacement and returns to her normal life with a survival outlook equal to that of her male counterparts. Without these sex-specific thresholds, Sarah might have waited another two years for surgery, by which time her heart could have suffered permanent damage.

References

1. Lopez Santi P, Fortuni F, Bernard J, et al. Sex Differences in Left Ventricular Remodeling for Risk Stratification of Patients With Aortic Regurgitation. *JAMA Cardiology*. 2026;11(3):239-249. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2025.4156.
2. Vahanian A, Beyersdorf F, Praz F, et al. 2021 ESC/EACTS Guidelines for the management of valvular heart disease. *European Heart Journal*. 2022;43(7):561–632.
3. Otto CM, Nishimura RA, Bonow RO, et al. 2020 ACC/AHA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Valvular Heart Disease. *Journal of the American College of Cardiology*. 2021;77(4):e25–e197.
4. Pibarot P, Clavel MA. Management of Aortic Regurgitation: Are We Ready for Sex-Specific Thresholds? *Journal of the American Society of Echocardiography*. 2024;37(2):145-148.

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